Saturday, August 04, 2007

The Trouble With Barry


Tonight, Barry Bonds hit his 755th homerun, tying him for the all-time record with Hank Aaron. Henry Arron, a genuinely likable guy who fought years of racism to break the previous record of 714, is about to lose his place in history to one of the most hated baseball players since Ty Cobb. (At least Cobb had the decency to admit he was a miserable human being. Shit, he claimed to have killed a mugger in self-defense, and had no problem assaulting the occasional ballpark patron. That's a prick.)

Still, regardless of what kind of an asshole a guy is, it's still impressive to hit 755 homeruns, especially considering that by the time Bonds retires (I suspect) next year, he will have played just as long as Aaron did and will probably have hit more homeruns. I think a lot of other people are just as impressed. What makes it not so impressive is the fact that, 10 years ago, Bonds wasn't on pace to catch Aaron.

"Why is that not impressive," you ask? Well, let's look at the numbers. Through the first 10 years of their careers, it was 366 for Aaron to 334 for Bonds. At this point in their respective careers, Aaron is two years younger than Bonds. Yet, over the next five years, Bonds passed Aaron by 13. Over the next three, leading up to the magical 715, the gap widened to 30. So, a guy who does not have time nor the homeruns on his side suddenly is ahead of schedule by 30. How does that happen?

Oh, that's right: those five years where Barry took the lead were the "magic years," where his head grew eight sizes, he lost the ability to run, and became the most feared power hitter in the game. (Barry once claimed he stopped stealing bases because he was "too old." Rickey Henderson stole 66 bases when he was 40. Yeah: "Too old.") The "magic years" where, at the ripe old age of 37, he eclipsed his previous season-high home run total of 49 (which he set the year before) by 24, and then tacked on another 136 leading up to his 40th birthday. Seems perfectly logical that a guy would hit almost half of his career homeruns after he was 35. Aaron only hit a third of his home runs during that period, so I guess my theory of him being the greatest player ever just got blown to shit.

I also think it's a little odd that it's taken Bonds this long to reach 755, considering the leaps and bounds he's taken in the years leading up to this season. Through the first 19 games of the season, he had eight homeruns. He's hit 13 since then. (That's 77 more games, for those of you counting.) You think he would have jumped all over that by now. Doesn't seem suspicious at all.

Oh well. Hopefully, he break the record tomorrow, so we can all go back to not caring about this anymore.

And for those of you who don't subscribe to the "magic years" theory, the picture at the top of this post is Barry in 2001, the year he hit 73. This picture above is Barry in 1998. Other than the mustache, I can't tell the difference. Can you?

Yeah, that's what I said.

6 comments:

Jesus Melendez said...

Alright...let me go out on a limb here.

Jose Canseco claims (although, you have to give his "claims" SOME sort of listen, right?) that steroids started blowing up in 1988.

Game of Shadows, the book about Bonds, says that he started using after the summer of 1998.

Soooo...am I right in assuming that Jose Canseco and Ken Caminiti were the ONLY guys usiung steroids between 1988 and 2000?

Am I?!?

Fuck off, "purists"...Bonds is your home run king. And remember this, when Hank Aaron broke Babe Ruth's record, people bitched and moaned and (I'm willing to bet), you are pointed to your guy and said..."suck it, he's the king".

Baseball became this monster, and now we have to live with it...and I LOVE IT! The guys breaking records now are guys that I remember seeing in the fishwrap from day one.

And as far as A-Rod hitting 800...ain't gonna happen. I predict the mound height gets fucked with within the next five years or so to give pitchers more of an advantage AND take some heat off the "is he" or "isn't he" debate that rages EVERY time a hitter knocks a few out.

Lastly...Bud Selig should openly embrace Bonds. Bonds is the top story EVERY NIGHT on SportsCenter. Every one of his last 55 home runs seem to be on the "top ten plays" highlight reel the night he goes yard.

Last Saturday more people saw an MLB game live than EVER before.

Why?!?

Bonds, baby, Bonds.

The dude is the anti-hero that brings people to the gates. Love him or hate him...you know you look to see what he did following each and every Giants game.

E said...

Wait...are you saying Bonds maybe used steroids?

Get the fuck out.

No matter how you slice it, anyone hitting 755+ homeruns is impressive. It's an absolute freakshow accomplishment.

What bothers me is how Bonds goes from a guy, at age 35, who maybe, MAYBE, tops out at 700 homeruns (impressive in itself), to a guy who's one away from a new record. Something just doesn't ring true about that.

But this is what the whole steroid thing has done to the game. Anytime anyone does anything slightly remarkable, we say, "Did he REALLY do that, or did he have help?" And it doesn't help when guys make a late-career, Bruce Banner-to-Hulk transformation, and put up the best numbers of their careers in their 40s.

Which is a shame, because guys like Bonds and McGwire were some of my favorite players, but who knows what to trust these days. The whole steroid thing, real or not, is ruining the only sport I love.

As for watching Giants highlights (or Sportscenter, for that matter), I haven't seen any since, maybe when they went to the World Series. In fact, I'm so off my baseball game that I just found out today that Dave Dravecky isn't with the team anymore. When'd that happen?

Seriously, I just found out today that Craig Biggio is past 3000 hits. He's still a catcher, right?

Jesus Melendez said...

"Performance enhancing drugs" are the standard in baseball and since it wasn't tested for (or discouraged for that matter)...people can't go around blaming guys for breaking whatever records they can.

Funny you mention McGwire. The guy only had impressive home run numbers...Bonds has had an impressive career.

I'm just upset that Juan Gonzalez's career got cut short. That guy was a MONSTER and was taken from us WAY too early!

Jesus Melendez said...

Oh...let me add that the bullshit retort of "Bonds was a Hall of Famer WAY before taking steroids is bullshit".

I mean...Darryl Strawberry was a Hall of Famer before he went west and got addicted to blow, but, SOMEHOW I think that his ENTIRE career is what was voted on when his time came.

E said...

Bonds was a HOFer way before taking steroids. If he doesn't bulk up to 350 lbs of muscle mass (45 of which is in his head), he keeps his speed, doesn't hit as many homeruns, doesn't get intentionally walked every time to bat, he'd already have 3000 hits, 680-700 HRs, 2000 RBI, and 600 SBs. I'd say those are safe HOF numbers. If anything, the fact that he turned into The Thing actually appears to have hurt his numbers. Fewer ABs, because pitchers are scared to throw to him, means fewer stats. Not that it matters.

And I just said McGwire was one of my favorite players, not that he was a good player. (The same could be said of Ron Robinson, but...Ron WHO?) Sure, he had 583 HRs, but his 600 hits and 800 RBI are good enough to MAYBE earn him free tickets to the Supertramp show in Cooperstown. Cuz that's as close as he'll ever get to the Hall.

Jesus Melendez said...

I understand what you were saying about McGwire being one of YOUR favorite and not the best ball player...Dante Bichette anyone?!?

And you make a GREAT point about Bonds. I did the math and (follow me here) if you did the math and make all those walks regular plate appearances and figure how many hits (and walks) he'd have had based on averages...you're looking at 300 hits lost since 2001.

Interestingly enough, Bonds has 755 hits in that span...1085 if you do my fuzzy math.

And again with the "before taking steroids"...so were plenty of people. I believe it should be phrased (and I don't mean by you...you know what I mean), Bonds would have been a Hall of Famer had he continued putting up those numbers and NOT did steroids.

There have been PLENTY of guys who had GREAT early careers and fizzled. Juan Gonzalez, Darryl Strawberry...Eric Davis?!? The list goes on and on.