And the Nominees Are...

So, here's the Oscar thing again:

Performance by an actor in a leading role
With the exception of Brad Pitt, who really shouldn't be here, there's a lot of good guys in this category. But I think it's a foregone conclusion that Mickey Rourke will win this. It's nice to see perpetual "That Guy" Richard Jenkins get nominated, though.

Performance by an actor in a supporting role
I'd love to see Robert Downey, Jr. win this, as that shit was hilarious, but this category is haunted by an extremely popular ghost.

Performance by an actress in a leading role
This is probably the one category that's a complete toss-up. If you look at all the other award shows and presentations up until now, I think every one of these actresses has won something for these roles. This one is going to come down to votes. There may even be a recount.

Performance by an actress in a supporting role
For my money, it's between Penelope Cruz and Marisa Tomei, with the edge to Cruz because Tomei has already won once. That being said, neither will probably win.

Best animated feature film of the year
Wall-E makes the other two look like flip-book animation.

Achievement in costume design
Every year, there's that one movie that gets nominated for everything, even in categories that it doesn't deserve to, just because everyone seems to think it's the greatest movie ever. I'm surprised that Benjamin Button wasn't nominated for Best Foreign Film as well.

Achievement in sound editing and sound mixing
Two years ago, I postulated a conspiracy theory about the winners of these two categories which turned out to be true. I'd bet my money the same way this year.

Achievement in film editing
I don't understand why Dark Knight and Benjamin Button are nominated here, as both of those movies needed a reel or two edited out of them.

Achievement in makeup
I wouldn't be able to understand anything but Hellboy winning this.

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original song)
So...we're back to three songs again? Will there be a year when there's only two? Or maybe six?

Achievement in visual effects
Again with Benjamin Button. If that beats Iron Man, I'll break your TV (because why would I break mine?).

Adapted screenplay
If there was ever a category about which I could care less, this is it.

Original screenplay
Although it will most certainly lose, In Bruges was the best out of all those movies. In my mind, at least.

Achievement in directing
David Fincher. Not that he deserves it, but he's who will win it.

Best motion picture of the year
It will be Benjamin Button. It is not a good movie and doesn't merit an Oscar, but since Forrest Gump won an Oscar, and Benjamin Button is a less-clever version of that, it will win the Oscar. That, and because Oscar voters are typically stupid and vote for exactly what you would think they would vote for. And I think they're stupid enough to vote for this.

I'd also like to point out the complete drubbing of Clint Eastwood. One of the most respected and prolific directors, whose films have been nominated 19 times (including three Best Pictures) and won seven Oscars in the past five years, puts out two movies in '08 and gets a whopping three nominations. Gran Torino, the weaker of the two, is at least twice as good as Benjamin Button.

The Academy is nothing if not fickle. At least they had the common sense to only give The Dark Knight seven nominations.